UK's Foresight Project

The UK's Foresight Project has released its report http://bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/current-projects/global-migration/reports-publications on "Migration and Global Environmental Change" accompanied by some media hype http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/oct/20/climate-change-millions-disaster-report

Nansen Conference 2011 Report Available

The final report from the Nansen Conference, "Climate Change and Displacement in the 21st Century" in Oslo, Norway, June 5-7, 2011 is now available:
http://d2530919.hosted213.servetheworld.no/expose/global/download.asp?id=2280&fk=1633&thumb=

The main Nansen Conference website is still http://www.nansenconference.no

Afghan climate refugees or not?

Will people migrate as a result of Afghanistan's drought? See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15193573 which fortunately does not try to invoke climate change or frame the situation as being the harbinger to come of "climate (change) refugees".

Instead, the article nicely describes the various factors such as "Lower harvests due to drought, and rising food prices world-wide". Root causes are also hinted at, in terms of "The Taliban and other insurgents have been making strong gains in recent years in the drought-affected areas, particularly in the north-east, which is likely to affect the delivery of food supplies to those who need them".

Perhaps many Afghans will migrate as a result of the drought. But let's not be too quick to blame climate change or to call them "climate (change) refugees". Fortunately, the BBC's reporting does not do so. More media work of this nature would reduce the rhetoric and inaccuracies surrounding the topic.

Continuing to hit the news

This topic continues to hit the news, with limited critical analysis:

http://multiamerican.scpr.org/2011/09/will-climate-change-affect-migration/

http://www.hispanicallyspeakingnews.com/notitas-de-noticias/details/climate-change-likely-influenced-mexican-migration-north/10147/

Compare these articles to UNISDR's more cautious and realistic approach to the topic:

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/news/v.php?id=21936

Climate Induced Migration from Bangladesh to India

New article published http://www.ehs.unu.edu/file/get/5408

Climate Induced Migration from Bangladesh to India: Issues and Challenges

Architesh Panda*

Abstract

Environmental crisis along with the increasing impacts of climate change in Bangladesh has become an important cause of cross-border migration to India. Such movement of population in Indo-Bangladesh context will generate a range of destabilizing socio-political, economic and environmental impacts in future. This paper focuses on climate variability and changes as a reason for the continued migration of people from Bangladesh to India and attempts to understand the vulnerability of people using the concepts of nested vulnerability. This paper argues that the vulnerability of specific individuals and communities is not geographically bounded but, rather, is connected at different scales. Among the many causes of vulnerability of people, cross border migration due to climate change might increase the susceptibility of people to climate change in both the countries. Without adequate bilateral and multilateral institutional arrangements in place to protect of climate migrants, it will pose greater risks to India.

Drought cause or not?

News reports http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13937486 indicate that "War and drought in Somalia are leading an unprecedented number of people to flee across the border into Kenya". Surely the issue is that war (and lack of governance) have undermined people's abilities to cope with drought? That is, the drought per se is not the cause of migration. Instead, it is people's lack of ability to deal with a drought--with the lack of ability being due to human factors only, with no climate-related connections.

Nansen Principles

The Chairperson's summary and Nansen Principles are now available from the Nansen Conference website (a PDF file).